Nations have pushed at the edges of the treaty in the past. In 1985, a U.S. F-15 fighter jet launched a specially-designed missile into space to take out an aging Department of Defense satellite over 300 miles above the Earth — China did something
similar in 2007. The U.S. test took part against the backdrop of the Cold War, and Russia similarly
considered a system meant to take out satellites with an explosive spacecraft.
But, for all the posturing and the potential advantages of destroying one another’s satellite networks, it never happened.
“The United States and the USSR were adversaries and they worked together to ensure that conflict did not erupt in space,” Blount says.
Uncertain Future
Today, the landscape has changed. Orbits around the Earth are getting more crowded. Smaller countries like Iran and North Korea have become players in the space race, and there are worries that they may not hesitate to bring war to outer space. North Korea, especially, does not rely on satellite networks the same way that we do, so they have far less to lose by taking them out.
And the balance of pros and cons could change even more as we begin to further expand the range of our activities in space. Colonies in orbit or on another planet, as well as mining operations in space, bring with them two of the most potent ingredients for war — territory and resources.
Creating laws that define right from wrong in space would help to alleviate future problems, but the three space superpowers — the U.S., Russia and China — seem hesitant to put any in the books. Though Russia and China have been pushing
a treaty banning weapons in orbit or on celestial bodies, Blount says it’s more public relations act than honest effort. They know the treaty has little chance of being approved, he says, giving them the chance to continue developing space capabilities while appearing to work towards peace.
The U.S. has taken much the same approach. President Bush refused to negotiate any treaties, according to Blount, and efforts under president Obama didn’t get anywhere. Meanwhile, Congress
recently advocated for a “Space Corps” within the Air Force — though the military branch did not support it — dedicated to defending U.S, interests in space. The Air Force sees its space spending
increase by eight percent under the Trump administration’s latest budget proposal. The money is largely earmarked for research and development and includes more funds for a missile warning system and space forces.
“I think all three of these states see the ambiguity in the rules as more beneficial to them than definitions at this moment,” Blount says. “You see a lot of talk about wanting to de-weaponize space, but don’t see a lot of movement in defining the rules.”
The end result is a continued push by all three nations toward military preparedness in space. It’s true that a space war might be something no one wants. But then again, what is everyone preparing for?